{"id":22,"date":"2005-09-16T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2005-09-16T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.managementscience.nl\/wordpress\/complexe-methode-voorspelt-niet-altijd-beter\/"},"modified":"2005-09-16T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2005-09-16T00:00:00","slug":"complexe-methode-voorspelt-niet-altijd-beter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.managementscience.nl\/slimmer-plannen\/complexe-methode-voorspelt-niet-altijd-beter\/","title":{"rendered":"Complexe methode voorspelt niet altijd beter"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>De conclusie is bevestigd dat statistisch geavanceerde of complexe methoden (bijvoorbeeld Artificial Neural Networks) niet pers\u00e9 nauwkeurigere voorspellingen leveren dan eenvoudigere methoden (bijvoorbeeld Single Exponential Smoothing). De uitdaging is om te bepalen welke methode in welke situatie de beste resultaten geeft.<\/p>\n<p>Er is \u00e9\u00e9n methode die beter dan gemiddeld scoort in de meeste situaties. Dit is de zogenaamde Theta-methode, een relatief jonge decompositie techniek. Hierbij worden seizoensinvloeden, lange en korte termijn trends ge\u00ebxtrapoleerd en gecombineerd tot \u00e9\u00e9n voorspelling.<\/p>\n<p>Bron: International Journal of Forecasting, Juli\/September 2005<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.managementscience.nl\/mos\/images\/stories\/ijf.jpg\" width=\"108\" height=\"149\" style=\"float: right;\" hspace=\"6\" alt=\"Image\" title=\"Image\" border=\"0\" \/>Sinds 1979 worden verschillende forecast methoden getest op hun nauwkeurigheid. Dit gebeurt in het kader van de Makridakis Competitions, of M-Competitions. De resultaten van de laatste M3 Competition zijn nader onderzocht in de laatste editie van het International Journal of Forecasting.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nieuws"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.managementscience.nl\/slimmer-plannen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.managementscience.nl\/slimmer-plannen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.managementscience.nl\/slimmer-plannen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.managementscience.nl\/slimmer-plannen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.managementscience.nl\/slimmer-plannen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.managementscience.nl\/slimmer-plannen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.managementscience.nl\/slimmer-plannen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.managementscience.nl\/slimmer-plannen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.managementscience.nl\/slimmer-plannen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}